Share:


Early termination compensation under demand uncertainty in public-private partnership projects

    Jinbo Song   Affiliation
    ; Yanzhu Yu   Affiliation
    ; Lulu Jin   Affiliation
    ; Zhuo Feng   Affiliation

Abstract

In the early termination of public-private partnership (PPP) projects, compensation is considered a core issue that greatly affects the interests of the government and the private sector. To address the early termination that is frequently caused by government default or voluntary buyback, this paper proposes an ex-ante compensation mechanism using the cumulative probability that a given demand could be realized to determine early termination compensation under demand uncertainty. By splitting the compensation into two parts, the base compensation could be the minimum compensation for the private sector, while the additional compensation is considered a reasonable allocation of future booming demand. The predetermined compensation criterion ensures a smooth transfer of the early terminated project, which not only benefits the government from being overcharged, but also enables the private sector to gain a reasonable compensation for the remaining concession period.

Keyword : public-private partnership, early termination, compensation, risk management, Monte Carlo simulation, demand uncertainty

How to Cite
Song, J., Yu, Y., Jin, L., & Feng, Z. (2018). Early termination compensation under demand uncertainty in public-private partnership projects. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(6), 532-543. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.6049
Published in Issue
Nov 12, 2018
Abstract Views
1542
PDF Downloads
976
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

References

Adamowski, J., Fung Chan, H., Prasher, S. O., Ozga-Zielinski, B., & Sliusarieva, A. (2012). Comparison of multiple linear and nonlinear regression, autoregressive integrated moving average, artificial neural network, and wavelet artificial neural network methods for urban water demand forecasting in Montreal, Canada. Water Resources Research, 48(1), 273-279. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009945

Alonso-Conde, A. B., Brown, C., & Rojo-Suarez, J. (2007). Public private partnerships: incentives, risk transfer and real options. Review of Financial Economics, 16(4), 335-349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2007.03.002

Bankman, J., & Griffith, T. (1987). Social welfare and the rate structure: a new look at progressive taxation. California Law Review, 75(6), 1905-1967. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3480545

Bing, L., Akintoye, A., Edwards, P. J., & Hardcastle, C. (2005). The allocation of risk in PPP/PFI construction projects in the UK. International Journal of Project Management, 23(1), 25-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2004.04.006

Buyukyoran, F., & Gundes, S. (2018). Optimized real options-based approach for government guarantees in PPP toll road projects. Construction Management and Economics, 36(4), 203-216. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2017.1347267

Engel, E. M., Fischer, R. D., & Galetovic, A. (2001). Least-present-value-of-revenue auctions and highway franchising. Journal of Political Economy, 109(5), 993-1020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/322832

EPEC. (2012). Termination and force majeure provisions in PPP contracts. Retrieved from http://www.allenovery.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/Termination_Report.pdf

HM Treasury. (2012). Standardisation of PF2 contracts draft. Retrieved from https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/207383/infrastructure_standardisation_of_contracts_051212.PDF

Holt, C. C. (1957). Forecasting seasonal and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages. Office of Naval Research, Research Memorandum No. 52. Reprint in International Journal of Forecasting, 20(1), 5-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.015

Huang, Y. L., & Pi, C. C. (2013). Real-option valuation of build-operate-transfer infrastructure projects under performance bonding. Journal of Construction Engineering & Management, 140(5). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000821

Hwang, B. G., Zhao, X., & Gay, M. J. S. (2013). Public private partnership projects in Singapore: factors, critical risks and preferred risk allocation from the perspective of contractors. International Journal of Project Management, 31(3), 424-433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.08.003

Iossa, E., Spagnolo, G., & Vellez, M. (2007). Best practices on contract design in public-private partnerships. World Bank, Working Paper. Retrieved from https://library.pppknowledgelab.org/documents/2278

Irwin, T. (2007). Government guarantees: allocating and valuing risk in privately financed infrastructure projects. World Bank Publications. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6638

Iseki, H., & Houtman, R. (2010). Examination of recent developments in DBFO public private partnership transportation projects in North America. Online Selected Proceedings of the 12th World Conference on Transportation Research. Retrieved from http://www.wctrs-society.com/wp-content/uploads/ab-stracts/lisbon/selected/02062.pdf

Iseki, H., & Houtman, R. (2012). Evaluation of progress in contractual terms: two case studies of recent DBFO PPP projects in North America. Research in Transportation Economics, 36(1), 73-84. http://www.wctrs-society.com/wp-content/uploads/ab-stracts/lisbon/selected/02062.pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2012.03.004

Jin, X. H., & Zhang, G. (2011). Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks. International Journal of Project Management, 29(5), 591-603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2010.07.011

Ke, Y., Wang, S. Q., Chan, A. P. C., & Lam, P. T. I. (2010). Preferred risk allocation in China’s public–private partnership (PPP) projects. International Journal of Project Management, 28(5), 482-492. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2009.08.007

Khazaeni, G., Khanzadi, M., & Afshar, A. (2012). Fuzzy adaptive decision making model for selection balanced risk allocation. International Journal of Project Management, 30(4), 511-522. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2011.10.003

Kokkaew, N., & Wipulanusat, W. (2014). Completion delay risk management: a dynamic risk insurance approach. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 18(6), 1599-1608. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-014-1128-4

Kwak, Y. H., & Ingall, L. (2007). Exploring Monte Carlo simulation applications for project management. Risk Management, 9(1), 44-57. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/4143844

Lee, S., & Choi, J. H. (2015). Wastewater treatment Transfer-Operate-Transfer (TOT) projects in China: The case of Hefei Wangxiaoying Wastewater treatment TOT project. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 19(4), 831-840. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-013-0095-5

Li, Y., Wang, X., & Wang, Y. (2016). Using bargaining game theory for risk allocation of public-private partnership projects: insights from different alternating offer sequences of participants.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(3). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001249

Liu, J., & Cheah, C. Y. (2009). Real option application in PPP/PFI project negotiation. Construction Management and Economics, 27(4), 331-342. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190902807071

Liu, J., Gao, R., & Cheah, C. Y. J. (2017). Pricing mechanism of early termination of PPP projects based on Real Option Theory. Journal of Management in Engineering, 33(6). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000556

Luehrman, T. A. (1997). What’s it worth? A general manager’s guide to valuation. Harvard Business Review, 75(4), 132-142. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/1997/05/whats-it-worth-ageneral-managers-guide-to-valuation

Martins, A. C., Rui, C. M., & Cruz, C. O. (2011). Public–private partnerships for wind power generation: the Portuguese case. Energy Policy, 39(1), 94-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.09.017

Medda, F. (2007). A game theory approach for the allocation of risks in transport public private partnerships. International Journal of Project Management, 25(3), 213-218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2006.06.003

Moore, M. A., Boardman, A. E., & Vining, A. R. (2017). Analyzing risk in PPP provision of utility services: a social welfare perspective. Utilities Policy, 48, 210-218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2017.08.008

National Audit Office. (2006). The termination of the PFI contract for the National Physical Laboratory. Retrieved from http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20101210142120/http:/www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/hc0506/hc10/1044/1044.pdf

Ng, A., & Loosemore, M. (2007). Risk allocation in the private provision of public infrastructure. International Journal of Project Management, 25(1), 66-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2006.06.005

Ng, S. T., Xie, J., Cheung, Y. K., & Jefferies, M. (2007). A simulation model for optimizing the concession period of public–private partnerships schemes. International Journal of Project Management, 25(8), 791-798. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.05.004

Nombela, G., & De Rus, G. (2004). Flexible-term contracts for road franchising. Transportation Research Part A Policy & Practice, 38(3), 163-179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2003.10.002

Pantelias, A., & Zhang, Z. (2010). Methodological framework for evaluation of financial viability of public-private partnerships: Investment risk approach. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 16(4), 241-250. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000015

Rezaie, K., Amalnik, M. S., Gereie, A., Ostadi, B., & Shakhseniaee, M. (2007). Using extended Monte Carlo simulation method for the improvement of risk management: consideration of relationships between uncertainties. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 190(2), 1492-1501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2007.02.038

Roumboutsos, A., & Anagnostopoulos, K. P. (2008). Public–private partnership projects in Greece: risk ranking and preferred risk allocation. Construction Management and Economics, 26(7), 751-763. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190802140086

Schwartz, E. S., & Trigeorgis, L. (Eds.). (2004). Real options and investment under uncertainty: classical readings and recent contributions. MIT press. Retrieved from https://trove.nla.gov.au/work/7582461

Shan, L., Garvin, M. J., & Kumar, R. (2010). Collar options to manage revenue risks in real toll public–private partnership transportation projects. Construction Management and Economics, 28(10), 1057-1069. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2010.506645

Shen, L. Y., Li, H., & Li, Q. M. (2002). Alternative concession model for build operate transfer contract projects. Journal of Construction Engineering & Management, 128(4), 326-330. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2002)128:4(326)

Song, J., Fu, Y., & Bagaya, O. (2016). Compensation mechanism for early termination of highway BOT projects based on ARIMA model. International Journal of Architecture, Engineering and Construction, 5(1), 53-60. https://doi.org/10.7492/IJAEC.2016.006

Song, J., Hu, Y., & Feng, Z. (2017a). Factors influencing early termination of PPP projects in China. Journal of Management in Engineering, 34(1). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000572

Song, J., Jin, L., Zhao, Y., & Hu, W. (2017b). Using bargaining-game model to negotiate compensation for the early termination of BOT highway projects. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 105, 197-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.06.017

Soomro, M. A., & Zhang, X. (2013). Roles of private-sector partners in transportation public-private partnership failures. Journal of Management in Engineering, 31(4). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000263

Trigeorgis, L. (1996). Real options: managerial flexibility and strategy in resource allocation. MIT press.

U.S. Treasury. (2017). Compilation of PPP terms and conditions of contract. Retrieved from http://ppp.gov.ie/wp/files/documents/DBFOM_Contract/clause-35.pdf

Valipour, A., Yahaya, N., Noor, N. M., Kildienė, S., Sarvari, H., & Mardani, A. (2015). A fuzzy analytic network process method for risk prioritization in freeway PPP projects: an Iranian case study. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 21(7), 933-947. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2015.1051104

Vassallo, J. M., Ortega, A., & Baeza, M. D. L. Á. (2011). Impact of the economic recession on toll highway concessions in Spain. Journal of Management in Engineering, 28(4), 398-406. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000108

World Bank. (2017). Private participation in infrastructure database. Retrieved from http://ppi.worldbank.org/customquery

Xiong, W., & Zhang, X. (2014). Compensation approaches for early termination of PPP projects. Proceedings of the 17th International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate (pp. 721-729). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. http://hdl.handle.net/1783.1/65092

Xiong, W., Zhang, X., & Chen, H. (2015). Early-termination compensation in public–private partnership projects. Journal of Construction Engineering & Management, 142(4). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001084http://hdl.handle.net/1783.1/65092

Xu, Y., Yeung, J. F., Chan, A. P., Chan, D. W., Wang, S. Q., & Ke, Y. (2010). Developing a risk assessment model for PPP projects in China – a fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach. Automation in Construction, 19(7), 929-943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2010.06.006

Ye, S., & Tiong, R. L. (2003). Tariff adjustment frameworks for privately financed infrastructure projects. Construction Management and Economics, 21(4), 409-419. https://doi.org/10.1080/0144619032000073550

Zhang, X. Q., & Xiong, W. (2015). Renegotiation and early-termination in public private partnership. International Journal of Archtecture, Engineering & Construction, 4(4), 204-213. http://hdl.handle.net/1783.1/78559

Zhang, X., & AbouRizk, S. M. (2006). Determining a reasonable concession period for private sector provision of public works and service. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 33(5), 622-631. https://doi.org/10.1139/l06-010

Zhang, X., & Kumaraswamy, M. M. (2001). Hong Kong experience in managing BOT projects. Journal of Construction Engineering & Management, 127(2), 154-162. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2001)127:2(154)