Share:


Scenario planning as approach to improve the strategic performance of multinational corporations (MNCs)

    Ahmad Nasser Abuzaid Affiliation

Abstract

The primary purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between scenario planning and strategic performance. The data was collected from 121 Multinational corporations operating in Jordan by using a questionnaire. Pearson correlation and the partial least squares (PLS) methodology for factor analysis and path modelling was used to test the study hypotheses. The study found a positive and statistically significant relationships between scenario planning and the four components of strategic performance: financial performance, customer performance, learning and growth, and internal business processes. Based on these findings, the study recommends that managers should apply scenario planning practices to enhance the levels of strategic performance in their companies. Additionally, managers should raise the awareness of their employees regarding the importance of both scenario planning and strategic performance. Moreover, managers should provide their employees with adequate training courses in relation to acquire the knowledge and build their skills in the field of scenario planning. Finally, managers should use the diagnostic instruments that developed by previous research to assess a company’s strategic performance and scenario planning practices, identify managerial practices that need to be implemented or improved, and determine the resources that might realistically be required to build a better scenario planning process and promote strategic performance. Much more research and studies need to be performed in this budding subject. Links among scenario planning and another organizational topics and outcomes need to be searched.

Keyword : scenario, scenario planning, strategic performance, MNCs, Jordan

How to Cite
Abuzaid, A. N. (2018). Scenario planning as approach to improve the strategic performance of multinational corporations (MNCs). Business: Theory and Practice, 19, 195-207. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2018.20
Published in Issue
Oct 16, 2018
Abstract Views
1359
PDF Downloads
1261
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

References

Abdulai MM, Robert HE, Amfo AP (2018) Service innovation and customer satisfaction: the role of customer value creation. European Journal of Innovation Management 21 (3): 402-422. https://doi.org/10.1108/EJIM-09-2017-0117

Al-Ma’aitah N (2018) The role of justice in achieving long-term buyer-supplier relationship: the case of Jordanian manufac- turing sector. International Review of Management and Marketing 8 (2): 109-117.

Aliya B, Maheen M (2017) The impact of organizational capabi- lities on organizational performance: empirical evidence from banking industry of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences 11 (1): 408-438.

Al-Tarawneh KA (2018) The possibility of applying the balanced scorecard a tool of evaluating the strategic performance of the Jordanian private universities (field study from the perspec- tive of workers in private universities in Jordan). Academy of Marketing Studies Journal 22 (1): 1-25.

Arafet B, Ali S (2018) Scenario planning: an investigation of the construct and its measurement. Journal of Forecasting 37 (4): 489-505. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2515

Azalia J, Stein W (2017) Strategic planning and scenario plan- ning in public institutions: the case study of Pacific Al- liance. FIIB Business 6 (3): 26-37. https://doi.org/10.1177/2455265820170306

Argueta CM, Agudelo I, Soto Cardona OC (2016) Scenario planning: a case study in a Colombian logistics consulting firm. Estudios Gerenciales 32 (138): 96-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.estger.2015.12.004

Bennett NJ, Kadfak A, Dearden P (2016) Community-based scenario planning: a process for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning to social–ecological change in coastal communities. Environ Dev Sustain 18: 1771-1799. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.estger.2015.12.004

Bennett N, Lemoine J (2014) What VUCA Really Means for You. Harvard Business Review 92 (1/2): 1.

Booth R (1996) Accountants do it by proxy. Management Acco- unting 74 (5): 48-61.

Borjeson L, Hjoer M, Dreborg K, Ekvall T, Finnveden G (2006) Scenario types and techniques: towards a user’s guide. Futures 38: 723-739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002

Bowman G, Mackay RB, Masrani S, Mckiernan P (2013) Story- telling and the scenario process: understanding success and failure. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80 (4): 735-748. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.009

Bradfield R, Derbyshire J, Wright G (2016) The critical role of history in scenario thinking: augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology. Futures 77 (1): 56-66.

Bradfield R, Wright G, Burt G, Cairns G, van der Heijden K (2005) The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures 37 (8): 795-812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003

Burt G, Mackay DJ, Van der Heidjen K, Verheijdt C (2017) Openness disposition: readiness characteristics that influ- ence participant benefits from scenario planning as strategic conversation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 124 (1): 16-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.11.024

Burt G, van der Heijden K (2003) First steps: towards purposeful activities in scenario thinking and future studies. Futures 35: 1011-1026. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(03)00065-x

Burt G, Wright G, Bradfield R, Cairns G, van der Jeijden K (2006) The role of scenario planning in exploring the environment in view of the limitations of PEST and Its derivatives. Inter- national Studies of Management and Organizations 36 (3): 78-97. https://doi.org/10.2753/IMO0020-8825360303

Burt G, Chermack TJ (2008) Learning with scenarios: summary and critical issues. Advances in Developing Human Resources 10 (2): 285-295. https://doi.org/10.1177/1523422307313334

Chakravarthy BS (1986) Measuring strategic performance. Strategic Management Journal 7 (5): 437-458. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250070505

Chandler AD (1962/1998) Strategy and structure: chapters in the history of the American Industrial Enterprise. Cambridge: MIT Press.

Chen FH, Hsu TS, Tzeng GH (2011) A balanced scorecard ap- proach to establish a performance evaluation and relationship model for hot spring hotels based on a hybrid MCDM model combining DEMATEL and ANP. International Journal of Ho- spitality Management 30: 908-932. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. ijhm.2011.02.001

Chermack TJ (2011) Scenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess scenarios. San Francisco: Berret- t-Koehler.

Chermack TJ, Coons LM, O’barr G, Khatami S (2017) The effects of scenario planning on participant reports of resilience. Eu- ropean Journal of Training and Development 41 (4): 306-326. https://doi.org/10.1108/EJTD-08-2015-0068

Chermack TJ, Lynham SA (2002) Definitions and outcome variables of scenario planning. Human Resource Development Review 1 (3): 366-383. https://doi.org/10.1177/1534484302013006

Chermack TJ, Lynham SA, Ruona WEA (2001) A review of scenario planning literature. Future Research Quarterly 17 (2): 7-31.

Chermack TJ, Lynham SA, van der Merwe L (2006) Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and perceptions of learning organization characteristics. Futures 38 (7): 767-777. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.010

Chong IG, Jun, CH (2005) Performance of some variable selection methods when Multicollinearity is present. Chemo metrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems 78: 103-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemolab.2004.12.011

Chung HF (2011) Market orientation, guanxi, and business per- formance. Industrial Marketing Management 40 (4): 522-533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2010.12.008

Chung HF, Yang Z, Huang PH (2015) How does organiza- tional learning matter in strategic business performance? The contingency role of guanxi networking. Journal of Business Research 68 (6): 1216-1224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2014.11.016

Clarke CJ (1987) Acquisitions-techniques for measuring stra- tegic fit. Long Range Planning 20 (3): 12-18. https://doi. org/10.1016/0024-6301(87)90067-7

Collis DJ, Montgomery CA (1995) Competing on resources: strategy in the 1990s. Harvard Business Review (July–Aug): 118-128. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-7506-7088-3.50005-x

Cox Landolt S (2000) Flexible mindset. Credit Union Manage- ment 23 (23): 65-79.

Drew SAW (2006) Building technology foresight: using scena- rios to embrace innovation. European Journal of Innovation Management 9 (3): 241-257.

Durance P, Godet M (2010) Scenario building: uses and abuses. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77 (9): 1488-1492. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.007

Fornell C, Larcker D F (1981) Evaluating structural equation models with unobser vable variables and measurement error. Journal of Marketing Research 18 (1): 39-50. https://doi:10.2307/3151312

Glick MB, Chermack TJ, Luckel H, Gauck BQ (2012) Effects of scenario planning on participant mental models. European Journal of Training and Development 36 (5): 488-507. https://doi:10.1108/03090591211232066

Grigoroudis E, Orfanoudaki E, Zopounidis C (2012) Strategic performance measurement in a healthcare organization: a multiple criteria approach based on balanced scorecard. Omega 40 (1): 104-119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2011.04.001

Haasnoot M, Kwakkel J, Walker W, Maat JT (2013) Dynamic ada- ptive policy pathways: a method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world Global Environmental Change 23 (2): 485-498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006

Hair J, Blackman WC, Anderson ER, Babin BJ (2018) Multivariate data analysis (7th ed) New Jersey: Cengage Learning.

Hartmann D, Stillings C (2015) Using scenarios in multinational companies across geographic distances – a case from the chemical industry. Foresight 17 (5): 475-488. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-11-2014-0076

Hiltunen E (2009) Scenarios: process and outcome. Journal of Fu- tures Studies 13 (3): 151-152 https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-11-2014-0076

Hojer M, Ahlroth S, Dreborg KH, Ekvall T, Finnveden G, Hjelm O, Hochschorner E, Nilsson M, Palm V (2008) Scenarios in selected tools for environmental systems analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production 16: 1958-1970. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jclepro.2008.01.008

Inayatullah S (2009) Questioning scenarios. Journal of Futu- res Studies 13 (3): 75-80 http://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/ uploads/2014/01/133-S01.pdf

Jusoh R, Ibrahim DN, Zainuddin Y (2008) The performance con- sequence of multiple performance measures usage: evidence from the Malaysian manufacturers. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management 57 (2): 119-136. https://doi.org/10.1108/17410400810847393

Kahane A (2012) Transformative scenario planning: changing the future by exploring alternatives. Strategy & Leadership 40 (5): 19-23. https://doi.org/10.1108/10878571211257140

Kaplan R, Norton D (1992) The balanced scorecard – measures that drive performance. Harvard Business Review 70 (1): 71-79 https://hbr.org/1992/01/the-balanced-scorecard-measures-that-drive-performance-2

Kaplan R, Norton D (1996) The balanced scorecard-translating strategy into action. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

Kaplan R, Norton D (2001) The strategy-focused organization: how balanced scorecard companies thrive in the new business environment. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

Kaplan R, Norton D (2004) Strategy maps: converting intangible assets into tangible outcomes. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

Kim K, Watkins KS, Lu Z (2017) The impact of a learning organi- zation on performance: Focusing on knowledge performance and financial performance. European Journal of Training and Development 41 (2): 177-193.

Kuye OL, Oghojafor BA (2011) Scenario planning as a recipe for corporate performance: the Nigerian manufacturing sector experience. International Journal of Business and Manage- ment 6 (12): 170-179.

Kyei DA, Bayoh AT (2017) Innovation and customer retention in the Ghanaian telecommunication industry. International Journal of Innovation 5 (2): 171-183. https://doi.org/10.5585/iji.v5i2.154

Lindgren M, Bandhold H (2009) Scenario planning: the link between future and strategy. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Madison K, Runyan RC, Swinney JL (2014) Strategic posture and performance: revealing differences between family and nonfamily firms. Journal of Family Business Strategy 5(3): 239-251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfbs.2013.11.006

Malaska P, Malmivirta M, Meristo T, Hansen SO (1984) Scenarios in Europe-who uses them and why?. Long Range Planning 17: 45-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(84)90036-0

Martino JP (2003) A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 70 (8): 719-733. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0040-1625(02)00375-x

Miles RE, Snow CC (1978) Organizational strategy, structure and process. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Mitchell F, Nielsen LB, Nørreklit H, Nørreklit L (2013) Scoring strategic performance: a pragmatic constructivist approach to strategic performance measurement. Journal of Manage- ment & Governance 17 (1): 5-34. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10997-012-9216-7

O’Brien FA, Meadows M (2013) Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80 (4): 643-656. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.06.006

Oliver JJ, Parrett E (2017) Managing uncertainty: harnessing the power of scenario planning. Strategic Direction 33 (1): 5-6. https://doi.org/10.1108/SD-09-2016-0131

Phadnis S, Caplice C, Sheffi Y (2016) How scenario planning in- fluences strategic decisions. MIT Sloan Management Review 57 (4): 24-27 http://mitsmr.com/1Vmgocb

Phelps R, Chan C, Kapsalis SC (2001) Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies. Journal of Business Research 51 (3): 223-232. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0148-2963(99)00048-x

Pinero CJ (2002) The balance scorecard: an incremental approach model to health care management. Journal of Health Care Finance 28 (4): 69-80.

Porter ME (1980) Competitive strategy: techniques for analyzing industries and competitors. New York: Free Press.

Porter ME (1985) Competitive advantage: creating and sustaining superior performance. New York: Free Press.

Porter ME (1998) Competitive advantage. New York: Free Press. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-14865-3

Prahalad CK, Hamel G (1990) Core competence of the corpo- ration. Harvard Business Review (May–June): 79-91 https:// hbr.org/1990/05/the-core-competence-of-the-corporation

Prieto IM, Revilla E (2006) Learning capability and business performance: a non-financial and financial assessment. The Learning Organization 13 (2/3): 166-185. https://doi.org/10.1108/09696470610645494

Puthenveetil JP (2016) An assessment the role of scenario based anticipatory organizational learning in strategy development an organizational development perspective. Doctoral dis- sertation. Available from ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global database.

Ramirez R, Wilkinson A (2016) Strategic reframing: the oxford scenario planning approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198745693.001.0001

Rigby D, Bilodeau B (2007) Selecting management tools wisely.

Harvard Business Review (December): 20-22 https://hbr.org/2007/12/selecting-management-tools-wisely

Ringland G (1998) Scenario planning: managing for the future. New York: John Wiley.

Robbins GC (1995) Scenario planning: a strategic alternative. Public Management 77 (3): 4-15.

Sarpong D, Maclean M (2011) Scenario thinking: a practice--based approach for the identification of opportunities for innovation. Futures 43: 1154-1163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.07.013

Schoemaker FJH (1995) Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review: 25-40. https://doi. org/10.1016/0024-6301(95)91604-0

Schulaka C (2017) Dennis stearns on super trends, predicting change, and scenario planning. Journal of Financial Planning 30 (1): 14-18. https://www.onefpa.org/

Schwartz P (1996) The art of the long view. New York: Doubleday.

Senge PM, Roberts C, Ross RB, Smith BJ, Kleiner A (1994) The fifth discipline field book: strategies and tools for building a learning organization. New York: Doubleday Currency.

Sharabati A, Fqaha S (2014) The impact of strategic management on the jordanian pharmaceutical manufacturing organiza- tions’ business performance. International Review of Mana- gement and Business Research 3 (2): 668-687. http://www.irmbrjournal.com/papers/1399183826.pdf

Sim K, Koh H (2002) Balanced scorecard: a rising trend in stra- tegic performance measurement. Measuring Business Excellence 5 (2): 18-26. https://doi.org/10.1108/13683040110397248

Simons R (1990) The role of management control systems in creating competitive advantage: new perspectives. accounting organizations and society 15 (1-2): 127-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/0361-3682(90)90018-P

Sosik JJ, Kahai SS, Piovoso MJ (2009) Silver bullet or voodoo statistics?: A primer for using the partial least squares data analytic technique in group and organization research. Group & Organization Management 34 (1): 5-36. https://doi. org/10.1177/1059601108329198

Strauss JD, Radnor M (2016) Road mapping for dynamic and un- certain environments. Research Technology Management 47 (2): 51-58. https://doi.org/10.1080/08956308.2004.11671620

Summit E (2002) Foreign direct investment: a lead driver for sustainable development? Paper presented at Economic Summit. www.earthsummit2002.org/es/issues/FDI/fdi.htm

Swanson E (1998) Swanson reviews: scenario planning for libra- ries edited by Joan Giesecke. The booklist 94 (21): 1853-1864.

Van der Heijden K (1996) Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. England: John Wiley and Sons.

Vinzi VE, Chin WW, Henseler J, Wang H (2010) Handbook of partial least squares: concepts, methods and applications. Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag.

Visser MP, Chermack TJ (2009) Perceptions of the relationship between scenario planning and firm performance: a qualitative study. Futures 41 (9): 581-592. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.04.010

Wack P (1985) Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review 63 (6): 139-150.

Weng M, Ha J, Wang Y, Tsai C (2012) A study of the relationship among service innovation, customer value and customer satisfaction: an empirical study of the hotel industry in Taiwan. International Journal of Organizational Innovation 4 (3): 98-112.

Werts CE, Joreskog KG, Linn RL (1973) Identification and estimation in path analysis with unmeasured variables. American Journal of Sociology 78 (6): 1469-1484. https://doi.org/10.1086/225474

Wheelen TL, Hunger JD (2012) Strategic management and busi- ness policy: toward achieving sustainability (13th ed) Upper Saddle River, N.J: Pearson Prentice Hall.

Wood W (1997) So where do we go from here? Across the Board 34 (3): 44-49.

Wu SI, Hung JM (2008) A performance evaluation model of CRM on nonprofit organizations. Total Quality Management & Business Excellence 19 (4): 321-342. https://doi.org/10.1080/14783360701591978

Zahradnícková L, Vacík E (2014) Scenarios as a strong support for strategic planning. Procedia Engineering 69: 665-669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2014.03.040

Zou S, Cavusgil ST (2002) The GMS: a broad conceptualization of global marketing strategy and its effect on firm performance. Journal of Marketing 66 (4): 40-56. https://doi.org/10.1509/jmkg.66.4.40.18519