Share:


The effect analysis of earning management and family control on the Z-score model of financial distress prediction

Abstract

The validity of the use of financial statements as a source of information for detecting financial distress is questionable because of the opportunistic behaviour of the company’s management. This study aims to analyse the effect of accrual earnings management, real earnings management, and family control on the Z-score financial distress prediction. Using the sample that includes 372 firm years of observations for the 2017 to 2019 periods listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, this study found that accrual earnings management, real earnings management, and family control variables affect the Z-score financial distress prediction and cause a higher probability for the company to be in the category of better financial condition. The novelty of this study lies in earnings management and family control as factors that affect the category of assessment and the probability of assessing the company’s financial condition as a better company. Empirical evidence from this study is important for investors and company creditors, as input to consider these factors in using the company’s financial distress prediction model. For standard setters, the results of this study can be used as input for establishing corporate governance design rules to improve the quality of financial information.

Keyword : accrual earning management, real earning management, family control, financial distress, financial statement, Z-score model prediction

How to Cite
Haji-Seseang, R., Habbe, A. H., Rasyid, S., & Nirwana, N. (2023). The effect analysis of earning management and family control on the Z-score model of financial distress prediction. Business: Theory and Practice, 24(2), 405–415. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2023.18123
Published in Issue
Sep 7, 2023
Abstract Views
406
PDF Downloads
364
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

References

Ajina, A., & Habib, A. (2017). Examining the relationship between earning management and market liquidity. Research in International Business and Finance, 42, 1164–1172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.054

Al-Haddad, L., & Whittington, M. (2019). The impact of corporate governance mechanisms on real and accrual earnings management practices: Evidence from Jordan. Corporate Governance, 19(6), 1167–1186. https://doi.org/10.1108/CG-05-2018-0183

Al-Manaseer, S., & Al-Oshaibat, S. (2018). Validity of Altman Z-Score model to predict financial failure: Evidence from Jordan. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 10(8), 181–189. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n8p181

Almamy, J., Aston, J., & Ngwa, L. N. (2016). An evaluation of Altman’s Z-score using cash flow ratio to predict corporate failure amid the recent financial crisis: Evidence from the UK. Journal of Corporate Finance, 36, 278–285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2015.12.009

Altman, E. I., Iwanicz-Drozdowska, M., Laitinen, E. K., & Suvas, A. (2017). Financial distress prediction in an international context: A review and empirical analysis of Altman’s Z-score model. Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, 28(2), 131–171. https://doi.org/10.1111/jifm.12053

Anderson, R. C., & Reeb, D. M. (2003). Founding-family ownership and firm performance: Evidence from the S&P 500. Journal of Finance, 58(3), 1301–1327. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00567

Bergh, D. D., Connelly, B. L., Ketchen, D. J., & Shannon, L. M. (2014). Signalling theory and equilibrium in strategic management research: An assessment and a research agenda. Journal of Management Studies, 51(8), 1334–1360. https://doi.org/10.1111/joms.12097

Boonlert-U-Thai, K., & Sen, P. K. (2019). Family ownership and earnings quality of Thai firms. Asian Review of Accounting, 27(1), 112–136. https://doi.org/10.1108/ARA-03-2018-0085

Byun, H. Y., Hwang, L. S., & Lee, W. J. (2011). How does ownership concentration exacerbate information asymmetry among equity investors? Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 19(5), 511–534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2011.06.002

Chen, Y., Chen, C. H., & Huang, S. L. (2010). An appraisal of financially distressed companies’ earnings management: Evidence from listed companies in China. Pacific Accounting Review, 22(1), 22–41. https://doi.org/10.1108/01140581011034209

Cho, S., Fu, L., & Yu, Y. (2012). New risk analysis tools with accounting changes: Adjusted Z-score. Journal of Credit Risk, 8(1), 89–108. https://doi.org/10.21314/JCR.2012.137

Cohen, D. A., Dey, A., & Lys, T. Z. (2008). Real and accrual-based earnings management in the pre- and post-Sarbanes‐Oxley periods. The Accounting Review, 83(3), 757–787. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2008.83.3.757

Çolak, M. S. (2021). A new multivariate approach for assessing corporate financial risk using balance sheets. Borsa Istanbul Review, 21(3), 239–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2020.10.007

Černius, G., & Birškytė, L. (2020). Financial information and management decisions: Impact of accounting policy on financial indicators of the firm. Business: Theory and Practice, 21(1), 48–57. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2020.9959

Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G., & Sweeney, A. P. (1995). Detecting earnings management. The Accounting Review, 70(2), 193–225.

du Jardin, P., Veganzones, D., & Séverin, E. (2019). Forecasting corporate bankruptcy using accrual-based models. Computational Economics, 54(1), 7–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-017-9681-9

Elia, J., Toros, E., Sawaya, C., & Balouza, M. (2021). Using Altman Z”-score to predict financial distress: Evidence from Lebanese alpha banks. Management Studies and Economic Systems (MSES), 6(1/2), 47–57. https://platform.almanhal.com/Files/2/239018

Fachrudin, K. A. (2020). The relationship between financial distress and financial health prediction model: A study in public manufacturing companies listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 22(1), 18–27. https://doi.org/10.9744/jak.22.1.18-27

Gómez-Mejía, L. R., Haynes, K. T., Núñez-Nickel, M., Jacobson, K. J. L., & Moyano-Fuentes, J. (2007). Socioemotional wealth and business risks in family-controlled firms: Evidence from Spanish olive oil mills. Administrative Science Quarterly, 52(1), 106–137. https://doi.org/10.2189/asqu.52.1.106

Grice, J. S., & Ingram, R. W. (2001). Test of the generalizability of Altman’s bankruptcy predication model. Journal of Business Research, 54(1), 53–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0148-2963(00)00126-0

Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(76)90026-X

Kovacova, M., Kliestik, T., Valaskova, K., Durana, P., & Juhaszova, Z. (2019). Systematic review of variables applied in bankruptcy prediction models of Visegrad group countries. OeconomiA Copernicana, 10(4), 743–772. https://doi.org/10.24136/oc.2019.034

Li, C., Lou, C., Luo, D., & Xing, K. (2021). Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management. International Review of Financial Analysis, 76, 101776. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101776

Li, Y., Li, X., Xiang, E., & Geri Djajadikerta, H. (2020). Financial distress, internal control, and earnings management: Evidence from China. Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, 16(3), 100210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcae.2020.100210

Lin, H. W. W., Lo, H. C., & Wu, R. S. (2016). Modeling default prediction with earnings management. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 40, 306–322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2016.01.005

Manab, N. A., Theng, N. Y., & Md-Rus, R. (2015). The determinants of credit risk in Malaysia. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 172, 301–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.01.368

Matturungan, N. H., Purwanto, B., & Irwanto, A. K. (2017). Manufacturing company bankruptcy prediction in Indonesia with Altman Z-Score model. Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen, 15(1), 18–24. https://doi.org/10.18202/jam23026332.15.1.03

Meiliawati, A., & Isharijadi, I. (2017). Analisis Perbandingan Model Springate Dan Altman Z Score Terhadap Potensi Financial Distress (Studi Kasus Pada Perusahaan Sektor Kosmetik Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Assets: Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Pendidikan, 5(1), 15–24. https://doi.org/10.25273/jap.v5i1.1183

Miller, D., Le Breton-Miller, I., Lester, R. H., & Cannella, A. A. (2007). Are family firms really superior performers? Journal of Corporate Finance, 13(5), 829–858. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2007.03.004

Mukhtaruddin, Pratama, H., & Meutia, I. (2018). Financial condition, growth, audit quality and going concern opinion: Study on manufacturing companies listed on Indonesia stock exchange. Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, 2(1), 16–25. https://doi.org/10.20448/2002.21.16.25

Namazi, M., Hajiha, Z., & Chenari, H. (2019). Modeling and identifying hierarchy of the effective measures of the earning management on the prediction of the bankruptcy. Journal of Financial Management Strategy, 6(4), 1–29.

Novita, D. (2018). Analisis Tingkat Akurasi Model Altman Z-Score, Indeks Kepailitan, Dan Indeks in05 Sebagai Prediktor Kebangkrutan Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2011–2015. Jurnal Ecogen, 1(1), 197–205. https://doi.org/10.24036/jmpe.v1i1.4739

Pangkey, P. C., Saerang, I. S., & Maramis, J. B. (2018). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Dengan Menggunakan Metode Altman Dan Metode Zmijewski Pada Perusahaan Bangkrut Yang Pernah Go Public Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal EMBA, 6(4), 3178–3187.

Pasko, O., Chen, F., Proskurina, N., Mao, R., Gryn, V., & Pushkar, I. (2021). Are corporate social responsibility active firms less involved in earnings management? Empirical evidence from China. Business: Theory and Practice, 22(2), 504–516. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2021.14940

Primasari, N. S. (2018). Analisis Altman Z-Score, Grover Score, Springate dan Zmijewski sebagai Signaling Financial Distress (Studi Empiris Industri Barang-Barang Konsumsi di Indonesia). Accounting and Management Journal, 1(1), 23–43. https://doi.org/10.33086/amj.v1i1.70

Roomi, M. S., Ahmad, W., Ramzan, M., & Zia-ur-Rehman, M. (2015). Bankruptcy prediction for non-financial firms of Pakistan. International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 5(2), 26–37. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijafr.v5i2.7782

Roychowdhury, S. (2006). Earnings management through real activities manipulation. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 42(3), 335–370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2006.01.002

Serrano-Cinca, C., Gutiérrez-Nieto, B., & Bernate-Valbuena, M. (2019). The use of accounting anomalies indicators to predict business failure. European Management Journal, 37(3), 353–375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.emj.2018.10.006

Tabassum, N., Kaleem, A., & Nazir, M. S. (2015). Real earnings management and future performance. Global Business Review, 16(1), 21–34. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150914553505

Tahu, G. P., & Yuesti, A. (2021). Analyzing the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the financial performance of Indonesian listed companies. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 25(3S).

Tanusaputra, W. S., & Eriandani, R. (2021). Reputasi perusahaan keluarga: Accrual dan real earnings management. Journal of Business and Banking, 10(2), 265–277. https://doi.org/10.14414/jbb.v10i2.2445

Tian, S., & Yu, Y. (2017). Financial ratios and bankruptcy predictions: An international evidence. International Review of Economics and Finance, 51, 510–526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.07.025

Tinoco, M. H., & Wilson, N. (2013). Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction among listed companies using accounting, market and macroeconomic variables. International Review of Financial Analysis, 30, 394–419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2013.02.013

Utami, R., Siregar, H., & Syarifuddin, F. (2020). The analysis of bankruptcy prediction model with adjustment of earning management on textile and garment sub-sector in Indonesia Stock Exchange. International Journal of Research and Review, 7(1), 208–218.

Villalonga, B., & Amit, R. (2006). How do family ownership, control and management affect firm value? Journal of Financial Economics, 80(2), 385–417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.12.005

Villalonga, B., Amit, R., Trujillo, M. A., & Guzmán, A. (2015). Governance of family firms. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 7, 635–654. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-110613-034357

Virgiawan, I. P. Y., & Diyanty, V. (2015). Pengaruh Konsentrasi Kepemilikan Keluarga Dan Internet Financial Reporting (IFR) Terhadap Asimetri Informasi. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Keuangan Indonesia, 12(2), 123–146. https://doi.org/10.21002/jaki.2015.08

Widarjono, A. (2020). Analisis multivariat terapan (2nd ed.). UPP STIM YKPN.

Zang, A. Y. (2012). Evidence on the trade-off between real activities manipulation and accrual-based earnings management. Accounting Review, 87(2), 675–703. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-10196

Zhang, X., Bartol, K. M., Smith, K. G., Pfarrer, M. D., & Khanin, D. M. (2008). Ceos on the edge: Earnings manipulation and stock-based incentive misalignment. Academy of Management Journal, 51(2), 241–258. https://doi.org/10.5465/AMJ.2008.31767230

Zhu, T., Lu, M., Shan, Y., & Zhang, Y. (2015). Accrual-based and real activity earnings management at the back door: Evidence from Chinese reverse mergers. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 35, 317–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2015.01.008

Zizi, Y., Jamali-Alaoui, A., El Goumi, B., Oudgou, M., & El Moudden, A. (2021). An optimal model of financial distress prediction: A comparative study between neural networks and logistic regression. Risks, 9(11), 200. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9110200